:Product: 20030221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 290 (N17E05) continues
in a slow growth phase and produced several minor C-class events,
the largest being an impulsive C4 flare at 21/1950Z. This moderately
complex region may have a weak delta configuration in the leader
spots.  Region 289 (N09W90) remains quite active as it rotates
around the west limb. This region has also been in a slow growth
phase since its development on the visible disk on 18 Feb. New
Region 291 was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels, though there is a small chance for an M-class flare
from Region 290.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The disturbed periods are
due to a declining high speed solar wind stream. This high speed
stream began the period near 700 km/s, but declined slowly
throughout the day to 550 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods over the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 120
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb  120/125/125
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 145
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  010/012-005/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/25
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05