:Product: 20030222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 290 (N18W06) was the
main flare producer, generating occasional subflares. The C5/Sf at
0929 UTC from Region 290 was the most energetic event of the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Remnants of the high-speed
stream persist, generating short-lived episodes of active
conditions. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
attained high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 107
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 145
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05