:Product: 20030223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred as the
disk is marked by just two spotted regions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 290 (N18W21), quiet today, may produce an occasional C-class
event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The solar wind radial
speed remains elevated, gusting between 550 and 650 km/s. The
energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled. Periodic active conditions may
occur, pending a decline in the solar wind speed.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 104
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 144
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  010/010-010/010-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05