:Product: 20030224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only one C-class event
occurred: a C1/Sf at 1136 UTC from Region 290 (N18W33). This region
continues to be the largest of the two sunspot regions currently on
the solar disk. Region 290 (N18W33) became somewhat more active
during the last few hours of the period with some impulsive B-flares
and some associated activity in a nearby filament.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds showed a declining trend throughout
the day. Electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 102
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 144
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  010/010-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05