:Product: 20030225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Today's largest event was
a B8 at 0401 UTC from Region 288 (N16W66). This region showed
additional brightenings during the day. Region 290 (N18W47)
continues to be the largest group on the disk but is decaying. New
Region 292 (S08W14) emerged on the disk as a simple beta type. Solar
X-ray images from GOES-12 show a new active region just behind the
east limb at about S19.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 102
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb  105/105/110
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 143
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  007/012-007/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05