:Product: 20030226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Today's largest flare was
a B7/Sf at 0946 UTC from Region 290 (N18W60). A few additional
B-class flares were observed, including one from the new active
region on the east limb at S18.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An interval of
weakly to moderately negative interplanetary Bz magnetic field (-5
to -10 nT) was observed from 0300-0600 UTC and led to active levels
from 0600-1200 UTC. Solar wind data also showed a density
enhancement and magnetic field enhancement beginning at 1800 UTC,
accompanied by a discontinuous shift in the spiral angle from an
away sector to a towards sector, suggesting a likely solar sector
boundary crossing.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days, with
a slight chance for some isolated active periods. The somewhat
enhanced levels of activity are expected because of favorably
positioned solar coronal holes.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Feb 109
Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar  115/120/120
90 Day Mean        26 Feb 143
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  012/012-012/012-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05