:Product: 20030227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There was just one C-class
flare today: a C1 at 0158 UTC that was from Region 288 on the west
limb at N14. Three new regions were assigned today: Region 293
(S21E26), Region 294 (S07E42), and Region 295 (S19E65). All are
simple, small sunspot groups. SXI images from GOES-12 show another
active region behind east limb at about N14.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. The solar sector boundary that began late
yesterday was followed by a co-rotating interaction region and a
high speed coronal hole stream. The CIR portion of the solar wind
flow included some intervals of moderate to strong negative
z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field (-10 to -15 nT) and
was associated with about 9 hours of active to minor storm levels.
Conditions declined to unsettled to active during the last 12 hours
of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24-48 hours as the
current high speed coronal hole stream continues. Conditions should
decline to mostly unsettled by the third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 118
Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar  123/125/128
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 143
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  020/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  015/015-015/012-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/30
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05