:Product: 20030228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  There were several
C-class flares today:  a C3.4 at 2344 UTC from an unnumbered region
on the West limb at N11, a C1.5 at 0033 UTC, a C1.7 at 0620 UTC, and
a C1.0 at 1250 UTC from Region 293 (S19E21).  Region 296 (N12E76)
was newly assigned today.  SXI images from GOES-12 show two new
regions behind the East limb at approximately N11 and S16.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels.  The
co-rotating interaction region from yesterday was followed quickly
by a high speed coronal hole stream.  At geosynchronous orbit, the
greater than 2 MeV Electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels as the high speed
coronal hole stream continues.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    10/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 125
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar  130/135/145
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 143
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  017/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  015/012-010/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05