:Product: 20030301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  There were several
C-class flares today:  one C5.1 at 0115 UTC from Region 297
(S16E67), a C2.4 at 0842 UTC and a C3.0 at 1432 UTC from Region 292
(S07 on the West limb), and 4 separate C-Class flares from Region
296 (N13E78).  Region 297 (S16E67) was newly assigned today.  SXI
images from GOES-12 show yet another new region behind the East limb
at approximately S20.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to a high
speed coronal hole stream which has nearly passed.  At
geosynchronous orbit, the greater than 2 MeV Electron fluxes reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days,
increasing to unsettled to active levels on day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 138
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar  145/150/155
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  012/012-012/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05