:Product: 20030302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  A small number of
C-class flares did occur with the largest a C1.3 at 1021 UTC from
Region 292 (S09W78).  SXI imagery from GOES-12 shows two new regions
behind the East limb at approximately N15 and S20.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next day,
increasing to unsettled to active levels on days two and three.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 147
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar  150/150/155
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  012/015-015/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/45/40
Minor storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/10/10