:Product: 20030303RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels today.  The
largest flare of the period was a B9.5 flare that occurred at
03/1830Z from Region 296 (N11E35).  A slight growth in penumbral
coverage and an increase in magnetic complexity (beta-gamma) were
observed in this region today.  The remainder of the active regions
were mostly quiescent throughout the period.  Regions 298 (S08E18),
299 (N12E47), and 300 (N16E66) were newly assigned during the
interval.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be a low
levels.  Region 296 has the potential of producing an isolated low
level M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels.  An increase
in the solar radial wind speed (approaching 500 km/sec at the time
of this writing) along with southward oscillations in the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field allowed for the
active periods seen late in the period.  The onset of a recurrent
coronal hole in the northwestern quadrant of the solar disk is
believed responsible for the increase in activity.  The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels.  Isolated minor storm
conditions are possible due to a recurrent high speed stream coronal
hole through the first two days of the period.  Day three should see
a return to predominantly unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 149
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar  150/155/155
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  015/020-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/30
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01