:Product: 20030306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 296
(N12W05) remains the largest and most complex group on the visible
disk, but has shown slow decay and very little activity over the
past 48 hours. Some developing complexity and considerable plage
fluctuations were noted in Region 301 (N22E08), but the region is
still quite small. No other significant changes were noted.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Though unusually quiet for its size and complexity, Region 296 has
potential for a C-class flare and a slight chance for an M-class
event. Minor C-class flares are also possible in Region 301.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated, high
latitude minor storm periods. This disturbance is due to a high
speed coronal hole stream, with solar wind speed averaging 500 to
550 km/s over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin the period at unsettled to active levels, but
should gradually decline to mostly quiet to unsettled levels by day
two. Isolated active periods are likely on days two and three.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 150
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  010/015-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05