:Product: 20030307RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 296
(N13W18), a relatively large and moderately complex region, has been
dormant for the duration of its transit on the visible disk. This
region was in a slow decay phase over the past few days, but still
shows some complexity. Region 301 (N22W05) though small, is in a
slow growth phase, and exhibited considerable plage fluctuations and
minor surging throughout the period. Newly numbered Region 306
(N05E76) rotated into view this period; a relatively large sunspot
group is evident, but limb proximity hinders a more thorough
analysis. This region was the likely source of a large CME observed
off the NE limb early on 6 March. Three other new sunspot groups
emerged today and were numbered as 303 (S18W47), 304 (S13W16), and
305 (S22E27).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 296, 301, and 306 all have potential for C-class flares.
There is a slight chance for an M-class flare from Regions 296 and
306.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods
were observed during local nighttime hours at all latitudes. The
high speed coronal hole stream responsible for the disturbed periods
over the past few days has gradually declined to near normal levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active
periods are possible at mostly higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M    15/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Mar 150
Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar  155/160/160
90 Day Mean        07 Mar 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  015/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  010/012-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01