:Product: 20030308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels today.  The
largest flare during the period was a C2.6/Sf event that occurred in
Region 206 (N05E63) at 08/0957Z.  White light currently shows this
group to consist of a single large penumbral spot which may share
both polarities.  Will be able to better analyze once region rotates
further onto disk.  A C1.0 flare was observed from Region 301
(N22W18) at 08/0116Z.  There was little in the way of magnetic
structure changes seen in this region during the period.  Region 297
(S14W25) produced a couple low level B-class flares today.  Regions
307 (S26W02) and 308 (n08E75) were newly assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  There is a small chance for an isolated M-class flare
from Region 296 (N13W31).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  There
was an isolated active period at mid latitudes in response to a
southward oscillation in the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field between 08/1500 and 1800Z.  The coronal hole high
speed stream that has been geoeffective for the past several days
appears to have rotated out of its favorable position early in the
period.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 148
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar  150/150/145
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  008/010-007/010-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01