:Product: 20030309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels today.  The
largest flare of the period was a C4.4/Sf event that occurred at
09/0647Z from Region 304 (S11W43).  This region also produced a
C2.6/Sf flare at 09/007Z and has shown some growth in magnetic
complexity since yesterday.  Region 306 (N05E47) has shown slight
growth in penumbral coverage and was responsible for several B-class
flares today.  Region 296 (N12W45) was relatively quiet throughout
the period and has underwent little change in the past 24 hours.
This region retains a weak gamma magnetic structure.  New Regions
309 (N05W77), 310 (S16W49), and 311 (S17E45) were newly assigned
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 296 (N12W45) has a slight chance of producing an
isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active conditions were observed at middle and high
latitudes early in the period due southward oscillations in the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field.  The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  There is a chance for
isolated active conditions at higher latitudes through the interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 153
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar  150/145/145
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  011/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  007/010-007/010-005/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01