:Product: 20030310RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels.  The largest
flare of the period was a C2.0/Sf event that occurred at 10/1754Z
from Region 310 (S16W62).  This region has been in decay throughout
the period.  Region 306 (N05E34) was responsible for lesser B-class
flares and has also shown some decay.  Most of the spotted regions
were quiescent during the period.  New Region 312 (N09W25) was newly
assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period occurred at mid and high latitudes
between 10/1200 and 1500Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the first 48
hours of the period.  Day three should experience active conditions
due to a co-rotating interactive region that has preceded a
recurrent coronal hole over the past several rotations.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 144
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar  140/140/135
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  006/010-006/012-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05