:Product: 20030311RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels today.  The
largest event of the period was a C1.2/Sf flare that occurred at
11/1230Z which originated from region 306 (N05E21).  This region has
changed little over the past 24 hours.  Region 296 (N12W71) has
shown decay during the period and has lost the gamma portion of its
magnetic classification today.  Region 304 (S11W69) has shown a
slight increase in penumbral coverage during the period.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active periods were observed at both middle and high
latitudes during the interval.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels for day
one of the forecast period.  By day two, active conditions with
isolated minor storm periods may exist due to a co-rotating
interaction region preceding a recurrent coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 142
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar  140/135/130
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  010/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  008/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  008/012-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor storm           10/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05