:Product: 20030312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The largest
event was a B8.4 flare at 12/1652 UTC from Region 306 (N05E08) as
seen in NOAA/SXI imagery.  Region 306 has exhibited growth in area
coverage over the past twenty-four hours and maintains its beta
magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 296 (12W85), 306, and 311 (S12E05) have C-class
potential.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  High speed stream
effects are expected on day one and day two as a recurring coronal
hole rotates into a geo-effective position.  A chance of isolated
active conditions are also possible on day one and day two due to
the expected high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 138
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar  130/125/120
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  007/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  015/015-015/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05