:Product: 20030314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The largest
event was a B9.2 X-ray enhancement at 14/1825 UTC. The most likely
source of this enhancement was a disappearing solar filament that
lifted off near S25W55.  The western most 30 degrees of the large
filament lifted off at 14/1730 UTC and was associated with a CME, as
seen in LASCO imagery.  There is not enough data at the time of this
report to determine if the CME will be geo-effective.  Two other
DSFs occurred during the past twenty-four hours.  A 10 degree
filament lifted off near S16W27 at 13/2030 UTC and a 13 degree
filament lifted off near N40E45 at 13/2200 UTC.  The 13 degree DSF
was associated with a CME off the northeast limb but does not appear
to be Earth directed.  New Region 314 (S14E00) rapidly appeared on
the visible disk and grew to 80 millionths.  Magnetic complexity of
Region 314 also rapidly increased to a beta-gamma configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Regions 306 (N07W19) and 314 have C-class potential and
a slight chance for M-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Early in the
period solar wind velocity increased to over 600 km/s marking the
onset of the expected high speed stream.  Fluctuations in the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field to -8 nT resulted in
isolated active conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm
levels possible.  High speed stream effects are expected to continue
through the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 139
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 141
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  008/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  015/015-012/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05