:Product: 20030315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 314 (S13W14)
produced a C8.4 flare at 15/2016 UTC and a C3.7 flare at 15/1530
UTC.  This region has continued its rapid growth, more than doubling
in area coverage over the past twenty-four hours to 220 millionths.
Increased magnetic complexity in the trailing spots of Region 314
suggest a weak delta configuration may be forming. Region 306
(N07W33) appears to be breaking up and may be developing a weak
delta configuration in the northern portion of the largest spot.
NOAA/SXI imagery indicates a new region, rotating onto the east limb
at N17, as the source of a number of B-class flares and one minor
C-class flare.  New Region 315 (N03W74) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Regions 306, 314 and the east limb region at N17 have
C-class potential.  Regions 306 and 314 have a slight chance of
M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels with one
period of minor storm levels.  Solar wind velocity has been steady
at 600 km/s and Bz has been, on average, slightly southward.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Continued high speed
stream effects are expected on day one and day two of the period.
CME effects from the DSF on 14 March are possible on day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 131
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  135/140/140
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 141
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  016/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  021/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  015/020-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05