:Product: 20030316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 314 (S14W26) remained
the most active area by producing a number of small C-class x-ray
flares. Growth of the region continued but at a reduced rate and a
delta configuration formed in the trailer spots. Region 306 (N08W45)
decayed slightly and was relatively stable with regard to flares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class flares are expected in Region 314. A chance of
a small M-class flare in 314 also exists.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The influence of a coronal
hole high-speed stream continues with solar wind speeds remaining
above 600 km/s and Bz values fluctuating between +/- 5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active under the influence of the coronal
hole stream for the next day or so. CME effects are possible on the
second day of the forecast due to a DSF observed on 14 March.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 129
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar  130/135/135
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 139
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  017/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  015/020-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05