:Product: 20030319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 314 (S13W66)
produced several flares over the past 24 hours, the largest being an
M3/1N at 19/0953 UTC. The delta configuration seems to remain
although the region's sunspots are decaying. Other disk regions were
relatively quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 314 may produce another major flare as it
decays.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The coronal hole
high-speed stream appears to be waning. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 20 March in
response to a CME associated with the 18 March X1/1b flare. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected by the end of the three-day
forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    75/50/30
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 108
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 138
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  016/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  020/025-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                60/50/40
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05