:Product: 20030320RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 314 (S13W80)
produced an M1/1f flare at 1131 UTC. The group also produced a C9/Sf
at 0231 UTC. The region appears to be in a slow decay phase as it
crosses the west limb. New Region 317 (N04E03) emerged on the disk
today as a small bipolar sunspot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next 24 hours due to possible additional flare
activity from Region 314. Conditions should decline to low levels
for the second and third day as Region 314 will be behind west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, with a minor
storm period at high latitudes from 0900-1200 UTC. An increase in
solar wind speed was observed at about 0420 UTC and may be an
indication of the passage of the flank of the CME that was
associated with the X1 flare observed at 18/1200 UTC. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the current
activity persists. A gradual decline to unsettled levels is expected
for the seconds and third days.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    40/20/05
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 097
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  020/020-015/015-012/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05