:Product: 20030322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  There were several
C-class and numerous B-class flares originating from old Region 314
(S16, L=062) which has rotated off the west limb.  The largest flare
from this region was a C2.3 x-ray flare that occurred at 22/0055Z.
The remainder of disk was quiescent throughout the interval.  Region
318 (S16E74), a four spot beta group, has begun to rotate into view
from the east limb and was newly assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active conditions.  The
solar wind speed has shown a slow, yet steady decrease during the
interval as a favorably positioned coronal hole enters into its
waning stage.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit have again exceeded high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled conditions throughout the
period.  Active conditions and isolated minor storm periods are
possible late on day three due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 089
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar  090/090/095
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 133
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  019/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  010/012-010/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/35
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05