:Product: 20030323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. The first was a C1 from Region 318
(S15E62) at 1214 UTC. This flare was associated with an erupting
filament and narrow CME observed on the east limb. The second was a
C1 from a new region behind east limb that was visible in Solar
X-ray images at latitude N04. New Region 319 (N15E53) was assigned
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a
period of storm level activity from 0900-1200 UTC, with minor storm
levels at mid-latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes.
The activity was caused by high speed solar wind accompanied by
frequent negative and positive fluctuations of Z-component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (typically oscillating between +6 to -
6 nT). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days, with a chance
for some isolated active periods. Activity is expected to increase
to mostly active on the third day in response to a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 093
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar  095/100/105
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 133
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  010/015-015/015-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    05/10/20