:Product: 20030325RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels.  The
largest flare of the period was a B9.1/Sf from Region 321 (N05E65)
that occurred at 25/1636Z.  This region underwent penumbral growth
during the period.  Region 319 (N13E27) experienced slight
development during the period and produced a lone B-class flare
early in the day.  A small 6 degree disappearing filament was
observed between 25/1700 and 1800Z which was centered at N38W10.
Regions 322 (N19W72) and 323 (S07E55) were newly assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class event
from region 321.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels until the onset of a favorably
positioned recurrent coronal hole.  The coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective early on the first day of the forecast period.
Predominantly active conditions are anticipated and minor storm to
major storm periods are possible through the first two days of the
interval.  Unsettled to active conditions are expected by day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 109
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar  115/125/135
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 132
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  005/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  020/020-015/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10