:Product: 20030326RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels.  Region 321
(N05E51) produced a C2.2/Sf flare at 26/1710Z.  This region has
continued to mature as evidenced by the development of a gamma
structure seen in the central portion of the spot complex.  Region
319 (N13E13) was quiescent today, although there was notable growth
in the regions penumbral coverage.  No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.  There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 321.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels.  The Boulder
magnetometer recorded an active period between 26/0300 and 0600Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through the interval.
Isolated minor to major storm conditions may exist on days one and
two due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.  Unsettled to active
conditions are expected on day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Mar 127
Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        26 Mar 132
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  015/020-012/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05