:Product: 20030327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 322 (N19,
L=348) produced the two largest flares of the period, a C3.6 x-ray
flare at 27/0945Z and a C2.3 x-ray flare at 27/1455Z (both correlated
using SXI imagery).  Region 321 (N05E34) has become a
beta-gamma-delta (weak) region which produced several low-level
flares during the period.  Region 319 (N13W01) has shown rapid
development and has become a beta-gamma class group over the past 24
hours.  Newly assigned Region 325 (N12E80-old Region 296) has begun
to rotate into view and was a large complex region on its previous
rotation.  New Region 324 (S16E68) was also assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Regions 319 and 321 have the potential of producing
M-class flare activity
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/- 10
nT throughout the period due to a recurrent high speed stream
(approximately 525 km/s at the time of this writing).  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels.  Minor storm
conditions are possible through day one of the interval due to a
favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole.  Days two and three
should see a return to predominantly unsettled levels with
intermittent active conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 141
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar  150/155/155
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 132
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  012/015-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05