:Product: 20030328RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was low due to a single C1 flare at
27/2325Z, likely associated with activity from near the southwest
limb. Region 319 (N12W18) has stabilized following a period of
rapid growth in the previous 24 hours. Despite its moderate size,
this region maintains a fairly simple magnetic configuration and has
been stable. Region 321 (N04E21) exhibited slight decay and was
relatively quiet this period. New Region 326 (S12E74) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Regions 319 and 321 have good potential for C-class
flares and a small chance for an M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with isolated minor
storm periods during local nighttime hours. The most active
conditions early in the period were due to a waning high speed
coronal hole stream. A weak transient passed the ACE spacecraft
between 28/1400 - 1500Z. Predominantly southward Bz in the IMF
resulted in active levels late in the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated minor storm periods at
higher latitudes are possible through day one and again on day three
as another weak coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Mar 147
Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar  150/155/150
90 Day Mean        28 Mar 133
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  016/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  012/012-010/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/30
Minor storm           20/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/35/40
Minor storm           25/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05