:Product: 20030329RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Regions 318 (S14W20) and 323
(S08W01) exhibited considerable growth this period and between them
produced several C-class flares, including a C8/1f flare from Region
318 at 29/1839Z. Larger Regions 319 (N12W30) and 321 (N04E11) were
uneventful and continue to slowly decay. No significant developments
in the remaining active regions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The potential for M-class flares is increasing with the
rapid development in Regions 318 and 323.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A
pronounced transient flow with sustained  periods of southward Bz in
the interplanetary magnetic field, produced the disturbed periods.
Solar wind speed decreased to less than 400 km/s by end of period,
but continued southward Bz is prolonging the disturbance.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods
likely over the next three days. Weak coronal hole effects are
expected on days two and three.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Mar 155
Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr  155/155/150
90 Day Mean        29 Mar 133
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  023/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  010/015-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/50/40
Minor storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/05