:Product: 20030330RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Mar 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Weak C-class flares were
observed in Regions 321 (N05W03) and 323 (S08W15). The rapid growth
and considerable C-class activity observed yesterday in Regions 318
(S13W34) and 323 has ended. Region 323, the more impressive of the
two, evolved into a beta-gamma region with near 250 millionths of
white light areal coverage. No significant developments were
observed in the remainder of the disk or limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare from Regions 321 or
323.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods at high latitudes. Solar wind signatures early this
period indicate a transition from transient flow to a high speed
coronal hole stream. Solar wind speed began the period near 400
km/s, but gradually increased to near 650 km/s by end of period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm
periods. A coronal hole high speed stream will buffet the
magnetosphere for most of the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    40/35/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 155
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr  155/150/150
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 133
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  017/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  015/020-012/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/45/50
Minor storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/10