:Product: 20030401RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  There were only two
C-class flares from Regions 323 (S08W43) and 318 (S12W65).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare from either
Region 323 (S08W43), Region 325 (N12E14), or Region 324 (S11W08).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels, with
occasional major storming at high latitudes.  The high speed stream
that began early on 30 March continued during the period.  The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  The high speed stream
which has impacted earth for the previous two days will pass by day
two.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 153
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr  155/150/145
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 134
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  015/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  017/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  010/012-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/30/30
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
VII.  Comments:  Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.