:Product: 20030402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  There were 4 minor
C-class flares from Regions 321 (N07W40) and 324 (S12W21).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare from Regions
321 (N07W40), 323 (S07W56), 324 (S12W21), or 325 (N10E04).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels.  The high
speed stream that began on 30 March has gained slightly in strength
to nearly 580 km/sec.  Intermittently southward Bz has
generated disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor-storm levels due to the continuing
high speed stream, and potential for southward Bz.  The high speed
stream should diminish tomorrow, and the geomagnetic field should
end the day at quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 158
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr  155/155/150
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  021/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/35
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
VII.  Comments:  Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.