:Product: 20030403RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels.  A significant
C-class flare from Region 324 (S11W35) occurred at 1027 UTC.  This
region has rapidly increased in both size and complexity over the
last 24 hours.  New Regions 329 (N01E18) and 330 (N07E74) were
numbered today.  No other significant activity occurred.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.  Regions 324 (S11W35) and 321 (N08W54) are sufficiently
complex and should continue to be for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels.  The high speed stream
which began on 30 March is subsiding, but continued instability in
the interplanetary magnetic field is maintaining our unsettled
activity levels.  The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active for the next two days due to the subsiding high speed stream.
By day three, the solar wind will increase again, and combined with
the potential for southward Bz, is likely to cause an increase to
unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storming.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M    45/45/35
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Apr 156
Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr  155/155/150
90 Day Mean        03 Apr 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  011/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  015/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  010/010-010/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
VII.  Comments:  Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.