:Product: 20030404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low to moderate.  Along with several
C-class flare events, Region 324 (S08W40) produced a significant
long-duration M1.9 flare at 2019 UTC.  Several regions including
324, 321 (N08W68), and 323 (S07W87) continue to show considerable
low-level activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next two days, dropping off to low when Region 324
(S11W40) makes its way off the visible disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at low to active levels with periods
of minor storming due to the continued influence of a high-speed
solar wind stream.  The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active conditions during the next 24 hours.  The waning high-speed
stream will decrease the geomagnetic field to quiet levels with
isolated periods of unsettled on the second and third days.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    45/35/25
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 153
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr  155/150/145
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  024/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  015/020-012/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                55/45/40
Minor storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10
VII.  Comments:  Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.