:Product: 20030405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 324 (S11W62)
produced a number of C-class flares with the largest one a C6 at
05/0916Z.  Region 324 has decreased in area coverage and spot count
but has retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity with a
weak delta configuration evident in the northeast intermediate
spots.  A C4/1f flare occurred at 05/1509Z from a spotless plage
region near S16E75.  Region 321 (N09W83) continues a gradual decline
as it approaches the west limb.  New Region 331 (S07W09) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated M-class activity.  Regions 324
and 321 have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one
period of minor storm conditions.  Solar wind was stable near 500
km/s until late in the period when it increased to over 550 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions.  Elevated solar
wind speeds and oscillating Bz are expected to gradually decline
over the next few days.  Late on day two or early on day three a
weak CME shock from the M1.9 flare on 04 April may result in
isolated active to minor storm conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    35/25/30
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 137
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  135/130/120
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  013/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  015/015-012/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/40/35
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/35
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.