:Product: 20030406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 324 (S12W74)
produced two C-class flare with the largest a C5 flare at 06/1928Z.
Region 324 continues to show gradual decay and has simplified to a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  The two largest regions on the
disk, Region 325 (N13W48) and Region 330 (N07E38), have both
increased in spot count and have developed beta magnetic
configurations.  Area coverage has been relatively unchanged.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Regions 324, 325, 330 have C-class potential and may
produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.  High
speed stream effects have diminished with solar wind velocity
decreasing to near 450 km/s and Bz oscillations subsiding.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels.  There is a
slight chance of a weak CME shock late on day two or early on day
three, which could produce isolated active conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    25/20/20
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 126
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr  115/110/105
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  016/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  012/012-015/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.