:Product: 20030407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 324 (S13W85)
produced a C2 flare at 07/0304Z.  Region 324 was to be the source of
the majority of activity during the past twenty-four hours.  Region
324 continues to simplify and decay as it transits the west limb.
Region 325 (N15W63) and Region 331 (S07W34) are the two largest
regions on the disk but are relatively unchanged since yesterday.
New Region 332 (N11E58) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Regions 324, 325, and 330 (N07E38) continue to
represent C-class potential with a slight chance of a minor M-class
event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Greater than
2 MeV electrons at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions.  A weak CME shock from the M1 event on 04 April is
expected to arrive late today or early on day one.  A returning
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to produce unsettled to
isolated minor storm levels on day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    20/20/15
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 116
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr  110/105/100
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 134
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  015/015-012/015-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/30
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/40
Minor storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/03/07
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.