:Product: 20030408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The largest
event was a B7 flare at 08/0520Z.  Region 330 (N07E10) continues a
gradual growth phase and has developed a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Regions 325(N14W77) and 330 have C-class
potential.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  A CME shock
from the M1 event on 04 April arrived early today with a 33 nT
sudden impulse at 08/0115Z recorded on the Boulder magnetometer.  Bz
reached values near minus 10 nT and solar wind velocity reached peak
values near 500 km/s.  Unsettled to active levels were observed at
mid latitudes and an isolated minor storm condition on the planetary
index.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Coronal hole high speed
stream effects are expected on day two and day three of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 112
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr  105/100/095
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 133
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  015/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  012/015-020/020-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/40/40
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05