:Product: 20030409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class events
occurred, the largest a C6 at 0933 UTC from a site just beyond the
SW limb.  Region 330 (N08W02) is the most prominent of the six
spotted regions, but has been quiet all day. Newly numbered region
333 (N11W36) was born on the disk. There are indications of another
spot group just now coming into view on the SE limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. This
activity is believed to be an extension of the shock/cme disturbance
that began yesterday.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 48
hours. A recurrent high-speed solar wind stream is due to affect the
magnetosphere. Unsettled to active conditions are likely to end the
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 109
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr  105/105/100
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 133
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  017/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  022/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/40
Minor storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10