:Product: 20030411RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A C7 x-ray event occurred at
0730 UTC, likely from a site beyond West limb. That was the day's
largest event. Otherwise, a number of bright regions are appearing
in x-ray imagery along the East limb, possibly heralding the
imminent arrival of some active regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The high speed
solar wind has slowed to speeds now near 600 km/s, and the wave
activity in the solar wind has diminished. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at generally unsettled levels for the next three days.
Remnants of the high speed stream may persist for the next day, but
in general, the geomagnetic field should calm over the interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 103
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 131
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  017/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10