:Product: 20030412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. None of the three spotted
regions currently visible produced anything of significance.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speed
remains  elevated -- 550 km/s -- but the IMF has been steady and
weak. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were
again at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the
forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 102
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 130
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  015/015-015/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10