:Product: 20030413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Today's only C-class flare was a C2/Sf from Region 330 (N07W57) at
0854 UTC. New Region 335 (S22E57) was assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for additional isolated C-class
flare events during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
declined steadily during the past 24 hours with day end values
between 450 to 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were
at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days, with a
chance for some isolated active periods. A coronal hole will be
rotating to a favorable position sometime between 15 and 17 April
and is expected to produce an increase in geomagnetic activity
levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 102
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr  100/095/090
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 129
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  012/012-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10