:Product: 20030414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's only C-class event was a C1 at 0930 UTC from Region 335
(S22E57). Region 334 (S08E29) exhibited the brightest plage
throughout the day but was not able to muster a flare-level event.
Region 330 (N07W57) continues to be the largest group on the disk
but was stable and quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels, with a
period of minor storm conditions at high latitudes from 1200-1500
UTC. The enhanced activity was associated with an extended interval
of moderately strong (-5 to -10 nT) southward orientation of the
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component between 1100-1500 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high levels early in the
day but dropped below 1000 PFU after 0525 UTC. Solar wind speed and
temperature showed a gradual increasing trend during the last four
hours of the day, which may indicate the beginning of a high speed
solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with occasional active periods
over the next three days. There is a chance for some isolated storm
periods at high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 102
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr  100/095/095
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  012/015-012/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/45
Minor storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/15