:Product: 20030415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The largest
event was B4 flare at 15/1356Z on the west limb near Region 330
(N09W86).  Region 334 (S08E02) produced a couple of minor B-class
events and exhibited a number of point brightenings and plage
fluctuations.  The only other significant activity was an eleven
degree disappearing solar filament that lifted off near N21E29.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Regions 330 and 334 have the potential for
C-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  Solar
wind velocity was elevated near 575 km/s and a prolonged period of
southward Bz produced active conditions for most of the day with one
period of isolated minor storm levels.  By the end of the day Bz
shifted northward and activity has subsided to unsettled levels.
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels.  A large southern
coronal hole has rotated into a geo-effective position and is
expected to produce active conditions over the next few days.  There
is a possibility of isolated minor storm conditions during the
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 101
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr  095/090/095
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  025/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  015/020-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/35
Minor storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    05/15/10