:Product: 20030416RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low. There were only two
minor B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The two spotted
regions on the disk were small, quiet, and stable. A five degree
filament near N15W51 disappeared between 1157 and 1222 UTC. An 11
degree filament near N21E29 disappeared sometime between 15/2341 and
16/1542 UTC. There did not appear to be any CME observed by
SOHO/LASCO that could be associated with either of these events.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is likely to be a slow increase in background
levels with the addition of new regions which are now visible in
GOES Solar x-ray imagery behind East limb at N20.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours with a minor to major storm period from 0900-1200 UTC and a
minor storm period at high latitudes from 1800-2100 UTC. The
coronal-hole induced high speed solar wind flow continues. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the current
disturbance persists. A decline to unsettled to active is expected
on the second day with a return to unsettled levels by the third
day.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 099
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  013/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  020/020-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10