:Product: 20030419RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 337 (S14E67) which
produced the most recent activity has been stable for the last 24
hours.  Region 338 (N17E28) was newly numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Apr 112
Predicted   20 Apr-22 Apr  115/120/120
90 Day Mean        19 Apr 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  018/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr  013/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  010/010-007/010-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/45
Minor storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05