:Product: 20030420RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 339 (N18W45) has
rapidly increased in complexity over the last 24 hours, and was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 337 (S14E55) and 339 (N18W45) harbor the greatest potential
for flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours,
increasing to unsettled to active levels on days 2 and 3 due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Apr 119
Predicted   21 Apr-23 Apr  125/125/130
90 Day Mean        20 Apr 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  010/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr  017/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  012/012-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/45/45
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05