:Product: 20030424RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels this period.
Region 338 (N18W45) produced an M3/1n at 24/1253Z with associated
Type II (830 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps.  A partial halo CME was
also detected on LASCO imagery.  Region 339 (N16,L=337) was active
during the period, producing several C-class flares as it crossed
the west limb, the largest being a C8 flare at 24/1553Z.  No
significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions.
New Regions 344 (N16E39), 345 (S17E74), and 346 (N16E74) were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  Region 338 may produce futher M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with isolated
minor storm periods at high latitudes.  Elevated solar wind speeds
up to near 600 km/s are responsible for the disturbed periods.  The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels.  High speed
coronal hole flow may be enhanced by transient flow over the next
three days.  Weak CME impact from an M5 flare on April 23 are
possible on days one and two.  A CME impact produced by today's M3
flare may arrive on day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M    40/40/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Apr 128
Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr  130/135/135
90 Day Mean        24 Apr 125
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr  020/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  020/020-020/025-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/40
Minor storm           35/35/35
Major-severe storm    15/15/15