:Product: 20030429RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Apr 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 337
(S16W67) produced an M1/1f flare at 0459Z.  Region 337 appears to
have lost its delta magnetic configuration since producing the M1
flare, but continues to produce minor C-class flares.  Region 349
(S13E20) has exhibited significant growth in area and spot count
over the last twenty-four hours, and now exceeds 40 spots and over
500 millionths of white light coverage.  This region has produced a
number of minor C-class flares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Regions 337 and 349 have the potential for
M-class events.  Region 349 could produce a major event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  Solar wind
velocity remains elevated near 550 km/s.  Transient flow has
produced periods of southward Bz that resulted in isolated active
and minor storm conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active.  A returning coronal hole is
expected to rotate into a geo-effective position on day one of the
period and may produce active to isolated minor storm levels during
the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Apr 155
Predicted   30 Apr-02 May  155/150/140
90 Day Mean        29 Apr 127
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  009/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  012/015-015/025-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/45
Minor storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/15/15